How to Use Counterfactuals to Combat (or Leverage) Jurors’ Hindsight Bias
Faced with the large amount of complex information being presented to them in trial, jurors will inevitably use “heuristics” – mental shortcuts – to help them keep up. Sometimes, these shortcuts lead to perfectly reasonable judgments. Other times, they create distorted perceptions and erroneous conclusions. One problematic heuristic is known as Hindsight Bias, or as it might be casually called, “Monday-morning quarterbacking.” Trial is a retrospective process; jurors know the outcome of the events being discussed because they’ve already happened. Jurors are instructed to set this knowledge aside when considering each party’s actions – but that doesn’t mean they can. With the “benefit” of hindsight, it’s all too easy to view the events as a chain leading to an obvious conclusion. Consciously or not, jurors can then place blame on one or